Vernor Vinge Discusses the Singularity, Future, Possibilities: "The human era will be ended"

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Countdown to the Singularity

Vernor Vinge on the Technological Singularity Vernor Vinge can rightly be called the Father of the Technological Singularity and came up with the term itself. Vinge thinks the technological singularity will occur no later than 2030. "I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by 2030". "The technological singularity is the most likely scenario for the relatively near future". Vinge states, "In the relatively near future, humankind, by using technology, will either create or become creatures of superhuman intelligence". This type of change, a technological change, will be qualitatively different than technological changes in the past. The change will be so profound that what will happen is unknowable, hence a singularity and event horizon over which no information, actually speculation and prediction, can occur. This implies no limit to progress. However, Vinge finds hope in this future world and not fear of the unknown. "Overall, we are in a situation where we can surpass the wildest dreams of optimism of previous generations."

Technological Singularity Paths Vinge watches paths to the singularity, and the developments in each as positive and negative indicators as to the overall progress towards the technological singularity. These paths are scenarios on how the singularity could occur. He lists 5 paths:
1) Artificial Intelligence scenario: humans create superhuman artificial intelligence in computers, machines become super-intelligent
2) Intelligence Amplification scenario: humans enhance human intelligence through human-to-computer interfaces, that is, humans achieve intelligence amplification, humans become super-intelligent
3) Biomedical Intelligence scenario: humans directly increase their intelligence by improving the neurological operations of their brains, humans become super-intelligent
4) Internet Intelligence scenario: humanity, its networks, computers, and databases become sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being, humans and machines collectively become super-intelligent
5) Digital Gaia scenario: the network of embedded processors becomes sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being, machines collectively become super-intelligent
6) [Editor's Note: this leaves only one other possible scenario: humans collectively become super-intelligent?]

Vernor Vinge & The Singularity: Authors at Google 5-time Hugo Award winning author Vernor Vinge, one of the most lauded SF writers of our era, discusses his work and concepts from it, including the concept of "The Singularity" which he coined, and his latest novel, "Children of the Sky," the sequel to "A Fire Upon the Deep." He is interviewed by Brad Templeton of EFF/Singularity U/Google X



About Vernor Vinge Vernor Vinge is a retired San Diego State University professor of mathematics, a computer scientist, and an award-winning science fiction author. Vinge is a futurist who is known as the originator of the term "technological singularity" and his 1993 essay, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" expounds on this concept. In the essay, he states, "Within thirty years we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended". He introduced the term "technological singularity" at an artificial intelligence conference at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1982 and later in a science fiction novel, "Marooned In Realtime" in 1986. Vinge has expanded on the themes of virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and the technological singularity in his books and describes himself as a science fiction writer.



Singularity Concept Timeline Vernor Vinge developed and honed the concept of the technological singularity in the 1980s and early 1990s. The culmination was a 1993 paper, a presentation at NASA and now a classic, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era". Vinge says that as the exponential increase in technology becomes more and more evident, especially compared to the 1980s and 1990s, the concept of the technological singularity will increasingly be part of the cultural fabric. "It fits more with what's going on. It becomes a steady drumbeat like background music, like background wallpaper, in how we look at things when it comes to progress. It is a way of looking at things, the world." He feels this concept is a model than can be run to interpret daily events. To keep a balanced view, Vinge also "runs a model" of the technological singularity not happening, as a contra-indicator and even has given a talk on this scenario. In retrospect, from the NASA essay in 1993 to the present, 2011, Vinge says there is little he would change in his paper


Warning! Dangerous Software in this Room!

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The Thirteenth Floor: Realities Within Realities

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Nested and Interconnected Realities

Nothing like stacking simulated realities on top of simulated realities and/or interconnecting realities to mix events up! Then the question of "What is real?" begins to confuse a wandering soul! See The Thirteenth Floor videos below, in which two realities become interconnected and begin to impact each other.

Humanity is just at the initial steps of virtual reality creations (e.g. computer games, Second Life, The Sims, World of Warcraft, et. al). As these become more immersive, the lines will begin to blur between our so-called objective reality and emerging virtual realities. Will humanity ultimately migrate into virtual reality, leaving our objective reality behind?

If humanity ultimately creates virtual realities which are a viable subset of our existing "objective reality", could this infer our reality is likewise a subset of a larger reality? If so, could this larger reality, which has been called extra-dimensional, metaphysical, and/or spiritual by the pundits and philosophers, have created the Universe as a simulated reality?

Perception of reality, our stream of consciousness, the world as we begin to see with new eyes becomes a series of Russian nested eggs or dolls, one within another within another. A dream within a dream...

The Thirteenth Floor Trailer

The barriers that separate fantasy from reality are shattered in this stylish, mind-jarring thriller, where two parallel worlds collide in a paroxysm of deception, madness and murder.

On the thirteenth floor of a corporate tower, high-tech visionary Douglas Hall (Craig Bierko, The Long Kiss Goodnight) and his high-strung colleague, Whitney (Vincent D'Onofrio, Men In Black), have opened the door to an amazing virtual world - circa 1937 Los Angeles. But when the powerful leader of their secret project (Armin Mueller-Stahl, Shine, The X-Files) is discovered slashed to death, Hall himself becomes the prime suspect.

Arriving from Paris is the beautiful and mysterious Jane Fuller (Gretchen Mol, Rounders), claiming to be the murder victim's daughter. Her instant, magnetic attraction to Hall only further blurs the lines of what is real. Is he the killer? Is the inscrutable Jane somehow connected?

To find the answers, Hall must cross the boundaries into the simulated reality he has helped create - and confront the astonishing truth about his own existence.



The Thirteenth Floor Movie

To unravel a mystery, a murder suspect must explore the boundaries between reality and a computer-simulated fantasy.





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Mike Adams & Tom Campbell on Reality & Consciousness

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"Is all that we see or seem But a dream within a dream?" ~ Edgar Allan Poe

Mike Adams, aka The Health Ranger, of NaturalNews.com has started another website, DivinityNow.com. The first video released on the new website is The God Within (below).

Mike raises some solid, thought-provoking points regarding physics, objective reality, virtual reality, consciousness, and even political philosophy. I have posted about the various forms of the Simulation Argument, the Universe as virtual reality.

I disagree with Mike on the issue of observation, specifically consciousness, affecting quantum physics observations. The classic example is the Double Slit Paradox. In my opinion, Tom Campbell has successfully explained this. It is information (not consciousness, measurement, or observation) that is determining the resulting data and further explanation is on this website (and the second video below). Sure, consciousness is required to enable the act of measurement or observation, but it is the information created that is the key. However, mind over matter is possible via consciousness and information, in my opinion.

At the end of the video, Mike comes to the conclusion that what is called "enlightenment" in various spiritual traditions is actually the realization that you are in fact inside a virtual reality, a contained reality. Further, you are reaching out to the "outside" reality, outside our virtual reality, outside our Universe, to the creator and designer. This agrees with Tom Campbell's conclusions.

This is an intriguing idea and reminds me of Alan Watts, a Zen Buddhist adherent. Watts said that when a master attained enlightenment it called for a good laugh by the now enlightened master. I personally took this to mean first, the enlightenment was most likely not what was originally expected at the beginning of the spiritual journey, and second, the enlightenment unveiled the ultimate absurdity and humor of the situation the master realized he (and everyone else) was actually in.

The God Within (FULL) from DivinityNow.com - Mike Adams

DivinityNow.com, founded by Mike Adams, releases this mind-expanding documentary on "conscious cosmology," covering consciousness, particle physics, the nature of reality, the Big Bang, quantum physics, origins of life, free will, and more.



Tom Campbell discusses the Universe as a virtual reality and each human as a consciousness receiving a data stream. Humans are virtual creations as is the entire Universe, rendered by something beyond this reality. He begins with the Double Slit Experiment Paradox and later mentions a recent quantum entanglement discovery that confirms his theory.

My Reality = Virtual + Information. Let's go down the rabbit hole with Tom in this interview and discover the world is not as it seems. That is, the Universe is not a physical, objective reality. See tags at end of post for additional information on this subject, including The Universe As a Virtual Reality and the Double Slit Experiment Paradox.

Tom Campbell: Our Reality Is Information

In this informal interview in Atlanta June 8, 2012, Tom Campbell, author of My Big TOE, expands on the significance of the scientific experiment called the Double Slit in terms everyone can understand.

"If you understand the Double Slit experiment, you understand how our reality works". He continues "Everything we do is not different from the Double Slit experiment".

This explanation is valuable to scientists as well as the general public. Tom takes a difficult subject and applies helpful analogies to clarify the implications of this scientific experiment.



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CERN: Evidence of Higgs Boson Particle Discovered

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One event with two muons (tracks in red) and two electrons (tracks in green) found by CMS.

The two teams at the CERN Large Hadron Collider, CMS and ATLAS, have reported their results to-date in the search for the Standard Model Higgs Boson. The particle discovered is most  likely the Higgs Boson but additional research is necessary. A 5 sigma confidence is considered a discovery and adequate confidence (odds are less than 1 in 3.5 million that it was produced by chance).

Peter Higgs, 83, who first proposed the idea of the boson in 1964 was present and cried at the end of the presentation. "For me it's a really incredible thing that it's happened in my lifetime".

Joe Incandela of the CMS (Compact Muon Solenoid) team confirmed that a particle has been discovered that is consistent with the Higgs boson theory. The new boson has a mass 125.3GeV (+-0.6) with a 4.9 sigma confidence.

Fabiola Gianotti of the ATLAS team confirmed a Higgs-like boson particle has been discovered at a mass of 126.5GeV with a 5.0 sigma confidence.

Cern Scientists Announce Higgs Boson Discovery Scientists at the Cern research centre in Switzerland reveal they have found a new subatomic particle that could be the Higgs boson. The announcement was greeted by rousing cheers and a few tears from the audience. The finding marks a breakthrough in understanding of the fundamental laws that govern the universe.



The Discovery of the Higgs Boson? Garrett Lisi Explains Following the CERN announcement, Theoretical physicist Garrett Lisi explains the discovery of the Higgs Boson particle by CERN scientists. Previously, LHC results have strongly signaled the existence of a Higgs with a mass of 125 gigaelectronvolts (GeV), or roughly 125 times more massive than the proton.



The Higgs Boson: Fireworks or Flameout? Theoretical Physicist Dr. Michio Kaku says that even with strong evidence of the Higgs Boson, it is not time to pop the champagne. Next up: use the Large Hardon Collider to find dark energy.

Watch video here.

What Is a Higgs Boson? Fermilab scientist Don Lincoln describes the nature of the Higgs boson. Several large experimental groups are hot on the trail of this elusive subatomic particle which is thought to explain the origins of particle mass.





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Fermilab Announces Higgs Particle Results: Closer But Not Close Enough

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The Tevatron and Main Injector rings at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in Illinois. (Image credit: US Energy Department)

As the world awaits the July 4 update by CERN on the Large Hadron Collider results in the search for the Higgs particle, Fermilab announced their Tevatron results on July 2.

Fermilab reported "Tevatron scientists found that the observed Higgs signal in the combined CDF and DZero data in the bottom-quark decay mode has a statistical significance of 2.9 sigma. This means there is only a 1-in-550 chance that the signal is due to a statistical fluctuation".

"We achieved a critical step in the search for the Higgs boson,” said Dmitri Denisov, DZero cospokesperson and physicist at Fermilab. “While 5-sigma significance is required for a discovery, it seems unlikely that the Tevatron collisions mimicked a Higgs signal. Nobody expected the Tevatron to get this far when it was built in the 1980s."

Scientists Announce New Findings on Higgs Boson Researchers near Chicago announce they're closer to proving the Higgs boson exists. European scientists set to make a Higgs announcement soon.



Tevatron Scientists Announce Their Final Results on the Higgs Particle

Fermilab - July 2, 2012

After more than 10 years of gathering and analyzing data produced by the U.S. Department of Energy's Tevatron collider, scientists from the CDF and DZero collaborations have found their strongest indication to date for the long-sought Higgs particle. Squeezing the last bit of information out of 500 trillion collisions produced by the Tevatron for each experiment since March 2001, the final analysis of the data does not settle the question of whether the Higgs particle exists, but gets closer to an answer. The Tevatron scientists unveiled their latest results on July 2, two days before the highly anticipated announcement of the latest Higgs-search results from the Large Hadron Collider in Europe.

“The Tevatron experiments accomplished the goals that we had set with this data sample,” said Fermilab’s Rob Roser, cospokesperson for the CDF experiment at DOE’s Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. “Our data strongly point toward the existence of the Higgs boson, but it will take results from the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider in Europe to establish a discovery.” "The Tevatron experiments accomplished the goals that we had set with this data sample," said Fermilab's Rob Roser, cospokesperson for the CDF experiment at DOE's Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. "Our data strongly point toward the existence of the Higgs boson, but it will take results from the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider in Europe to establish a discovery."

Scientists of the CDF and DZero collider experiments at the Tevatron received a round of rousing applause from hundreds of colleagues when they presented their results at a scientific seminar at Fermilab. The Large Hadron Collider results will be announced at a scientific seminar at 2 a.m. CDT on July 4 at the CERN particle physics laboratory in Geneva, Switzerland.

"It is a real cliffhanger," said DZero co-spokesperson Gregorio Bernardi, physicist at the Laboratory of Nuclear and High Energy Physics, or LPNHE, at the University of Paris VI & VII. "We know exactly what signal we are looking for in our data, and we see strong indications of the production and decay of Higgs bosons in a crucial decay mode with a pair of bottom quarks, which is difficult to observe at the LHC. We are very excited about it."

The Higgs particle is named after Scottish physicist Peter Higgs, who among other physicists in the 1960s helped develop the theoretical model that explains why some particles have mass and others don't, a major step toward understanding the origin of mass. The model predicts the existence of a new particle, which has eluded experimental detection ever since. Only high-energy particle colliders such as the Tevatron, which was shut down in September 2011, and the Large Hadron Collider, which produced its first collisions in November 2009, have the chance to produce the Higgs particle. About 1,700 scientists from U.S. institutions, including Fermilab, are working on the LHC experiments.

The Tevatron results indicate that the Higgs particle, if it exists, has a mass between 115 and 135 GeV/c2, or about 130 times the mass of the proton.

"During its life, the Tevatron must have produced thousands of Higgs particles, if they actually exist, and it's up to us to try to find them in the data we have collected," said Luciano Ristori, co-spokesperson of the CDF experiment and physicist at Fermilab and the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) . "We have developed sophisticated simulation and analysis programs to identify Higgs-like patterns. Still, it is easier to look for a friend's face in a sports stadium filled with 100,000 people than to search for a Higgs-like event among trillions of collisions."

The final Tevatron results corroborate the Higgs search results that scientists from the Tevatron and the LHC presented at physics conferences in March 2012.

The search for the Higgs particle at the Tevatron focuses on a different decay mode than the search at the LHC. According to the theoretical framework known as the Standard Model of Particles, Higgs bosons can decay in many different ways. Just as a vending machine might return the same amount of change using different combinations of coins, the Higgs can decay into different combinations of particles. At the LHC, the experiments can most easily observe the existence of a Higgs particle by searching for its decay into two energetic photons. At the Tevatron, experiments most easily see the decay of a Higgs particle into a pair of bottom quarks.

The Tevatron is one of eight particle accelerators and storage rings on the Fermilab site. The largest, operational accelerator at Fermilab now is the 2-mile-circumference Main Injector, which provides particles for the laboratory’s neutrino and muon research programs. What is a Higgs Boson? Fermilab scientist Don Lincoln describes the nature of the Higgs boson. Several large experimental groups are hot on the trail of this elusive subatomic particle which is thought to explain the origins of particle mass.





After more than 10 years of gathering and analyzing data produced by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Tevatron collider, scientists from the CDF and DZero experiments have found their strongest indication to date for the long-sought Higgs particle. The Tevatron results indicate that the Higgs particle, if it exists, has a mass between 115 and 135 GeV/c2, or about 130 times the mass of the proton.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Higgs Boson (pdf download)

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Hubble, Swift Detect First-Ever Changes in an Exoplanet Atmosphere

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This artist's rendering illustrates the evaporation of HD 189733b's atmosphere in response to a powerful eruption from its host star. NASA's Hubble Space Telescope detected the escaping gases and NASA's Swift satellite caught the stellar flare.
(Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center)

Hubble, Swift Detect First-Ever Changes in an Exoplanet Atmosphere

An international team of astronomers using data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has made an unparalleled observation, detecting significant changes in the atmosphere of a planet located beyond our solar system. The scientists conclude the atmospheric variations occurred in response to a powerful eruption on the planet's host star, an event observed by NASA's Swift satellite.

"The multiwavelength coverage by Hubble and Swift has given us an unprecedented view of the interaction between a flare on an active star and the atmosphere of a giant planet," said lead researcher Alain Lecavelier des Etangs at the Paris Institute of Astrophysics (IAP), part of the French National Scientific Research Center located at Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.

The exoplanet is HD 189733b, a gas giant similar to Jupiter, but about 14 percent larger and more massive. The planet circles its star at a distance of only 3 million miles, or about 30 times closer than Earth's distance from the sun, and completes an orbit every 2.2 days. Its star, named HD 189733A, is about 80 percent the size and mass of our sun.

Exo-Planet Hot Flareup Astronomers classify the planet as a "hot Jupiter." Previous Hubble observations show that the planet's deep atmosphere reaches a temperature of about 1,900 degrees Fahrenheit (1,030 C). HD 189733b periodically passes across, or transits, its parent star, and these events give astronomers an opportunity to probe its atmosphere and environment. In a previous study, a group led by Lecavelier des Etangs used Hubble to show that hydrogen gas was escaping from the planet's upper atmosphere. The finding made HD 189733b only the second-known "evaporating" exoplanet at the time. The system is just 63 light-years away, so close that its star can be seen with binoculars near the famous Dumbbell Nebula. This makes HD 189733b an ideal target for studying the processes that drive atmospheric escape.




The exoplanet HD 189733b lies so near its star that it completes an orbit every 2.2 days. In late 2011, NASA's Hubble Space Telescope found that the planet's upper atmosphere was streaming away at speeds exceeding 300,000 mph. Just before the Hubble observation, NASA's Swift detected the star blasting out a strong X-ray flare, one powerful enough to blow away part of the planet's atmosphere. (Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center)

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Tom Campbell: Our Reality Is Information (and Virtual)

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"My consciousness" receives a data stream, therefore I am

Tom Campbell discusses the Universe as a virtual reality and each human as a consciousness receiving a data stream.Humans are virtual creations as is the entire Universe, rendered by something beyond this reality. He begins with the Double Slit Experiment Paradox and later mentions a recent quantum entanglement discovery that confirms his theory.

My Reality = Virtual + Information. Let's go down the rabbit hole with Tom in this interview and discover the world is not as it seems. That is, the Universe is not a physical, objective reality. See tags at end of post for additional information on this subject, including The Universe As a Virtual Reality and the Double Slit Experiment Paradox

Tom Campbell: Our Reality Is Information In this informal interview in Atlanta June 8, 2012, Tom Campbell, author of My Big TOE, expands on the significance of the scientific experiment called the Double Slit in terms everyone can understand.

"If you understand the Double Slit experiment, you understand how our reality works". He continues "Everything we do is not different from the Double Slit experiment".

This explanation is valuable to scientists as well as the general public. Tom takes a difficult subject and applies helpful analogies to clarify the implications of this scientific experiment.



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Global Future and the Technological Singularity: A New Era for Humanity

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The world is on the verge of global change. The rate of globally significant events, and that of discoveries and crises, is growing exponentially. We are facing the choice: To fall into a new Dark Age - into affliction and degradation – or to find a new model for human development and create not simply a new civilization, but a new mankind.

2045: A New Era for Humanity In February of 2012 the first Global Future 2045 Congress was held in Moscow. There, over 50 world leading scientists from multiple disciplines met to develop a strategy for the future development of humankind. One of the main goals of the Congress was to construct a global network of scientists to further research on the development of cybernetic technology, with the ultimate goal of transferring a human's individual consciousness to an artificial carrier.



Global Future Timeline

2012-2013. The global economic and social crises are exacerbated. The debates on the global paradigm of future development intensifies. New transhumanist movements and parties emerge. Russia 2045 transforms into World 2045. Simultaneously, the 2045.com international social network for open innovation is expanding. Here anyone interested may propose a project, take part in working on it, or fund it, or both. In the network, there are scientists, scholars, researchers, financiers and managers.

2013-2014. New centers working on cybernetic technologies for the development of radical life extension rise. The 'race for immortality' starts.

2015-2020. The Avatar is created -- A robotic human copy controlled by thought via 'brain-computer' interface. It becomes as popular as a car.

2020. In Russia and in the world appear -- in testing mode -- several breakthrough projects: Android robots replace people in manufacturing tasks; android robot servants for every home; thought-controlled Avatars to provide telepresence in any place of the world and abolish the need business trips; flying cars; thought driven mobile communications built into the body or sprayed onto the skin.

2020-2025. An autonomous system providing life support for the brain and allowing it interaction with the environment is created. The brain is transplanted into an Avatar B. With Avatar B man receives new, expanded life.

2025. The new generation of Avatars provides complete transmission of sensations from all five sensory robot organs to the operator.

2030-2035. ReBrain -- The colossal project of brain reverse engineering is implemented. World science comes very close to understanding the principles of consciousness.

2035. The first successful attempt to transfer one's personality to an alternative carrier. The epoch of cybernetic immortality begins.

2040-2050. Bodies made of nanorobots that can take any shape arise alongside hologram bodies.

2045-2050. Drastic changes in social structure, and in scientific and technological development. All the for space expansion are established. For the man of the future, war and violence are unacceptable. The main priority of his development is spiritual self-improvement.

A new era dawns: The era of neohumanity.



Russia 2045 Strategic Social Initiative

Global Future 2045 International Congress

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The New Age of Cognitive Computing

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The Cognitive Systems Era Join IBM's Dharmendra Modha - Manager, Cognitive Computing Systems and Master Inventor - as he offers a glimpse of IBM Research's efforts to help shape the new age of cognitive computing.




Dharmendra Modha - Manager, IBM Cognitive Computing Systems

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Dolphin Nebula Swimming Through Space

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The Dolphin Nebula image is surreal. This is known and reported by Space.com as "crescent-shaped planetary nebula SH2-188 glows in wisps of green". Bill Snyder, an astrophotographer, has created an extraordinary image for us to enjoy and ponder.

Bill Snyder reports, "Sh2-188 also known as PNG128.0-4.1 and Simeis22. The Dolphin Nebula, in the constellation Cassiopeia, is a planetary nebula. It is approxmiatly 850 light years from Earth This an asymmetrical shaped planetary nebula."

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Dolphin Nebula

Thanks to Space.com for breaking the story and Bill Snyder for his wonderful image.

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