Vernor Vinge Discusses the Singularity, Future, Possibilities: "The human era will be ended"

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Countdown to the Singularity

Vernor Vinge on the Technological Singularity Vernor Vinge can rightly be called the Father of the Technological Singularity and came up with the term itself. Vinge thinks the technological singularity will occur no later than 2030. "I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by 2030". "The technological singularity is the most likely scenario for the relatively near future". Vinge states, "In the relatively near future, humankind, by using technology, will either create or become creatures of superhuman intelligence". This type of change, a technological change, will be qualitatively different than technological changes in the past. The change will be so profound that what will happen is unknowable, hence a singularity and event horizon over which no information, actually speculation and prediction, can occur. This implies no limit to progress. However, Vinge finds hope in this future world and not fear of the unknown. "Overall, we are in a situation where we can surpass the wildest dreams of optimism of previous generations."

Technological Singularity Paths Vinge watches paths to the singularity, and the developments in each as positive and negative indicators as to the overall progress towards the technological singularity. These paths are scenarios on how the singularity could occur. He lists 5 paths:
1) Artificial Intelligence scenario: humans create superhuman artificial intelligence in computers, machines become super-intelligent
2) Intelligence Amplification scenario: humans enhance human intelligence through human-to-computer interfaces, that is, humans achieve intelligence amplification, humans become super-intelligent
3) Biomedical Intelligence scenario: humans directly increase their intelligence by improving the neurological operations of their brains, humans become super-intelligent
4) Internet Intelligence scenario: humanity, its networks, computers, and databases become sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being, humans and machines collectively become super-intelligent
5) Digital Gaia scenario: the network of embedded processors becomes sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being, machines collectively become super-intelligent
6) [Editor's Note: this leaves only one other possible scenario: humans collectively become super-intelligent?]

Vernor Vinge & The Singularity: Authors at Google 5-time Hugo Award winning author Vernor Vinge, one of the most lauded SF writers of our era, discusses his work and concepts from it, including the concept of "The Singularity" which he coined, and his latest novel, "Children of the Sky," the sequel to "A Fire Upon the Deep." He is interviewed by Brad Templeton of EFF/Singularity U/Google X



About Vernor Vinge Vernor Vinge is a retired San Diego State University professor of mathematics, a computer scientist, and an award-winning science fiction author. Vinge is a futurist who is known as the originator of the term "technological singularity" and his 1993 essay, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" expounds on this concept. In the essay, he states, "Within thirty years we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended". He introduced the term "technological singularity" at an artificial intelligence conference at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1982 and later in a science fiction novel, "Marooned In Realtime" in 1986. Vinge has expanded on the themes of virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and the technological singularity in his books and describes himself as a science fiction writer.



Singularity Concept Timeline Vernor Vinge developed and honed the concept of the technological singularity in the 1980s and early 1990s. The culmination was a 1993 paper, a presentation at NASA and now a classic, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era". Vinge says that as the exponential increase in technology becomes more and more evident, especially compared to the 1980s and 1990s, the concept of the technological singularity will increasingly be part of the cultural fabric. "It fits more with what's going on. It becomes a steady drumbeat like background music, like background wallpaper, in how we look at things when it comes to progress. It is a way of looking at things, the world." He feels this concept is a model than can be run to interpret daily events. To keep a balanced view, Vinge also "runs a model" of the technological singularity not happening, as a contra-indicator and even has given a talk on this scenario. In retrospect, from the NASA essay in 1993 to the present, 2011, Vinge says there is little he would change in his paper


Warning! Dangerous Software in this Room!

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Global Future and the Technological Singularity: A New Era for Humanity

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The world is on the verge of global change. The rate of globally significant events, and that of discoveries and crises, is growing exponentially. We are facing the choice: To fall into a new Dark Age - into affliction and degradation – or to find a new model for human development and create not simply a new civilization, but a new mankind.

2045: A New Era for Humanity In February of 2012 the first Global Future 2045 Congress was held in Moscow. There, over 50 world leading scientists from multiple disciplines met to develop a strategy for the future development of humankind. One of the main goals of the Congress was to construct a global network of scientists to further research on the development of cybernetic technology, with the ultimate goal of transferring a human's individual consciousness to an artificial carrier.



Global Future Timeline

2012-2013. The global economic and social crises are exacerbated. The debates on the global paradigm of future development intensifies. New transhumanist movements and parties emerge. Russia 2045 transforms into World 2045. Simultaneously, the 2045.com international social network for open innovation is expanding. Here anyone interested may propose a project, take part in working on it, or fund it, or both. In the network, there are scientists, scholars, researchers, financiers and managers.

2013-2014. New centers working on cybernetic technologies for the development of radical life extension rise. The 'race for immortality' starts.

2015-2020. The Avatar is created -- A robotic human copy controlled by thought via 'brain-computer' interface. It becomes as popular as a car.

2020. In Russia and in the world appear -- in testing mode -- several breakthrough projects: Android robots replace people in manufacturing tasks; android robot servants for every home; thought-controlled Avatars to provide telepresence in any place of the world and abolish the need business trips; flying cars; thought driven mobile communications built into the body or sprayed onto the skin.

2020-2025. An autonomous system providing life support for the brain and allowing it interaction with the environment is created. The brain is transplanted into an Avatar B. With Avatar B man receives new, expanded life.

2025. The new generation of Avatars provides complete transmission of sensations from all five sensory robot organs to the operator.

2030-2035. ReBrain -- The colossal project of brain reverse engineering is implemented. World science comes very close to understanding the principles of consciousness.

2035. The first successful attempt to transfer one's personality to an alternative carrier. The epoch of cybernetic immortality begins.

2040-2050. Bodies made of nanorobots that can take any shape arise alongside hologram bodies.

2045-2050. Drastic changes in social structure, and in scientific and technological development. All the for space expansion are established. For the man of the future, war and violence are unacceptable. The main priority of his development is spiritual self-improvement.

A new era dawns: The era of neohumanity.



Russia 2045 Strategic Social Initiative

Global Future 2045 International Congress

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It's a Bright Future If You Are an Algorithm, the New Evolutionary Force

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Kevin Slavin understands algorithms as nature - our world is subject to algorithmic optimization, not just on Wall Street, but in our homes, our architecture, and in our cities. Math is shaping our environments, what he calls the 'physics of culture'.

"It's a bright future if you are an algorithm."

"It takes you 500,000 microseconds just to click a mouse. But if you’re a Wall Street algorithm and you’re five microseconds behind, you’re a loser."

"We’re running through the United States with dynamite and rock saws so that an algorithm can close the deal three microseconds faster, all for a communications framework that no human will ever know; that’s a kind of manifest destiny (for algorithms). We are actually terraforming the Earth itself with this kind of algorithmic efficiency."

Seismic terrestrial effects are being caused by the math we are making. Our landscape has been made by a collaboration between nature and man. "But now there is this third co-evolutionary force - algorithms. And we will have to understand those as nature. And in a way, they are."

Kevin Slavin sees a world where games shape life and life shapes games. ~ O’Reilly Radar

Kevin Slavin: How Algorithms Shape Our World Kevin Slavin argues that we're living in a world designed for - and increasingly controlled by - algorithms. In this riveting talk from TEDGlobal, he shows how these complex computer programs determine: espionage tactics, stock prices, movie scripts, and architecture. And he warns that we are writing code we can't understand, with implications we can't control. Kevin Slavin navigates in the algoworld, the expanding space in our lives that’s determined and run by algorithms.







As an entrepreneur, Kevin has successfully navigated and integrated the areas of gaming, new media, technology, and design. As Co-founder of Area/Code in 2005, Kevin was a pioneer in rethinking game design and development around new technologies (like GPS) and new platforms (like Facebook). Area/Code worked to develop next-generation game experiences not only for major consumer product groups like Nokia, Nike and Puma but for media giants such as MTV, Discovery Channel, CBS and Disney. Their Facebook game Parking Wars, commissioned byA&E Television to promote its show of the same name, served over 1 billion pages in 2008. The company was acquired by Zynga in 2011, becoming Zynga New York.

Beware of Online Filter Bubbles: Your Internet information is being controlled!

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